MATCH OVERVIEW
The upcoming Brazil Série A match between Fortaleza and Ceará is more than just a local derby; it's a pivotal clash that could influence the standings significantly. Fortaleza, playing at home, will look to leverage their familiarity with the Arena Castelão to secure a win against their rivals, Ceará. Both teams are in the mid-table battle, making every point crucial as they aim to climb higher in the league.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds favor Fortaleza slightly, with a home win priced at 1.97, indicating a 50.76% probability. The draw is at 3.3, translating to a 30.30% chance, while an away win for Ceará is at 3.6, giving them a 27.78% probability. These odds suggest a closely contested match, with Fortaleza having a slight edge due to their home advantage.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Fortaleza
Fortaleza has shown a mixed form this season, averaging 1 goal per match and maintaining a possession rate of 46.5%. Their offensive play is supported by an average of 12.67 shots per game, with 4.42 on target. However, their defense has been a concern, conceding 1.5 goals per match. Key players like Juan Martín Lucero, who has scored 3 goals, will be crucial in breaking down Ceará's defense.
Ceará
Ceará, on the other hand, has been slightly more prolific in front of goal, averaging 1.18 goals per match. Their possession stats are lower at 41.18%, but they compensate with a solid defensive setup, conceding only 1 goal per game. Pedro Raul, with 6 goals this season, is their standout performer and will be a key threat to Fortaleza's defense.
Head-to-Head
Historically, matches between these two teams have been tightly contested, with both sides having their fair share of victories. The tactical battle will be intriguing, as Fortaleza's attacking prowess meets Ceará's defensive resilience.
KEY PLAYERS SPOTLIGHT
Fortaleza
- Juan Martín Lucero: With 3 goals this season, Lucero is a vital part of Fortaleza's attack.
- Yago Pikachu: Known for his versatility, Pikachu has contributed 2 goals and will be key in midfield.
Ceará
- Pedro Raul: Leading the scoring charts for Ceará with 6 goals, Raul's form will be crucial.
- Matheus Bahia: A consistent performer, Bahia's defensive skills will be tested against Fortaleza's forwards.
STATISTICAL DEEP DIVE
Offensive Metrics
- Fortaleza averages 12.67 shots per game, with a 50% over 2.5 goals rate.
- Ceará averages 9.73 shots, with a 36.36% over 2.5 goals rate.
Defensive Metrics
- Fortaleza concedes 1.5 goals per match, with 34.42 interceptions.
- Ceará concedes 1 goal per match, with 42 interceptions.
Possession and Passing
- Fortaleza's possession stands at 46.5%, with 377.5 passes per game.
- Ceará's possession is lower at 41.18%, with 308.27 passes.
PREDICTION AND CONCLUSION
Based on the data, Fortaleza's home advantage and slightly better offensive stats give them a slight edge. However, Ceará's solid defense and Pedro Raul's form could make this a challenging fixture for the hosts. The match-winning factors will likely hinge on Fortaleza's ability to convert their chances and Ceará's defensive resilience.
Final Score Prediction
- Full Time: Fortaleza 2-1 Ceará
- Half Time: Fortaleza 1-0 Ceará
Probability Insights
- Home Win: 50.76%
- Away Win: 27.78%
- Draw: 30.30%
- Both Teams to Score: 60%
- Over 2.5 Goals: 55%
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